Final PBS/NPR/Marist Poll: Democrats Lead Generic Ballot 52% to 44% With Likely Voters
Cost of living edges out 'preserving democracy' as the top issue; Trump's approval among likely voters is 40%.
Democrats lead Republicans 52% to 44% among likely voters on the question of which party’s congressional candidate they support, according to the final PBS News/NPR/Marist poll before the Nov. 3 midterms. Among all registered voters, Democrats lead by 10 points, down from 12 a month earlier, a change within the margin of error.
The poll surveyed 1,280 registered voters by phone, text and online on Oct. 19–20. The margin of error is 3.7 points for registered voters and 3.8 for likely voters, larger for subgroups.
President Trump’s job approval stands at 40% approve, 59% disapprove among likely voters. Forty-four percent say their vote is mostly against him, 21% mostly for him, and 35% say he is not much of a factor.
The issue picture is close. Cost of living is the top issue at 34%, just ahead of preserving democracy at 33%, with immigration at 12%. Republicans rank cost of living first (31%), then democracy (23%) and immigration (20%). Thirty-eight percent of likely voters say their family finances worsened over the past year.
Enthusiasm favors Democrats: 71% of Democratic likely voters are very enthusiastic, compared with 61% of Republicans and 48% of independents. About 21% of likely voters say they have already voted, and that group favors Democrats 68% to 31%. And 39% say no campaign or group has contacted them about voting.
Why it matters. Polls are a snapshot, not a verdict, and midterm polling has missed in both directions before. The number Republicans should focus on is the 39% who say no one has asked for their vote. Elections are won by the side that knocks on more doors in the last week.
The other side. Democrats see the poll as confirmation of a national swing against the president; Republicans note the registered-voter gap narrowed and that early voters skew Democratic because GOP voters tend to vote on Election Day.
Open questions. How Election Day turnout compares with the early vote, and whether the generic-ballot lead translates into House seats under current district lines.
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